A new model for weekly rainfall 

    Dr. Thanuja Silva

South Asian countries fall victim to extreme whether events often. High population density, poverty and lack of resources for recovery aggravate the situation.  Research shows that over the last 30-40 years, prediction of short term rainfall, particularly weekly rainfall has been difficult due to erratic variability and high volatility.

    Prof. Sarath Peiris

Thanuja studied the variability of weekly rainfall including extreme events, focusing on the south-west monsoon and the second inter-monsoonal periods in Sri Lanka.  She developed and validated a   model to forecast weekly rainfall in Colombo.  Her research outcome is a novel long-range dependency model, whose performance is maintained over a wide range of forecasting lengths.

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